Biden Surpasses Harris as Likeliest Democratic Nominee After Press Conference

President Joe Biden overtakes Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely Democratic nominee on Polymarket, following his latest press conference.

In a significant shift on the prediction market platform Polymarket, President Joe Biden has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris as the most probable Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election. This change comes in the wake of Biden’s first press conference in months, where he addressed various concerns and reiterated his intention to stay in the race.

President Joe Biden addresses the press, impacting his odds on Polymarket.

Key Points:

Polymarket Odds Shift:

• Biden's odds of being the Democratic nominee surged from 33% to 51% during the day, before settling at 45%.

• Harris' probability dipped to 37% but later rebounded to 42%.

Election Odds:

• Biden's chance of winning the general election stands at 13%, while Harris is slightly ahead at 15%.

• Former President Donald Trump remains the favorite, with a 61% chance of victory according to Polymarket.

Press Conference Highlights:

• Biden addressed foreign policy issues and gun violence with heightened emotion.

• Despite slurring his words and mistakenly referring to Harris as "Vice President Trump," he reiterated his commitment to the race.

Concerns and Support:

• Biden's age and cognitive health have led to calls from prominent Democrats and donors for him to step aside.

• Despite these concerns, Biden insists on staying in the race, emphasizing the importance of allaying fears about his condition.

Polymarket's Role:

• Polymarket has seen a significant increase in activity, with hundreds of millions of dollars riding on the election's outcome.

• The platform uses smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain to facilitate bets, though it has geofenced U.S. users due to regulatory settlements.

Related: Trump Surges to 67% in Polymarket Odds Post-Presidential Debate

President Joe Biden's odds of becoming the Democratic nominee have risen significantly on Polymarket following his recent press conference. Despite concerns about his health and age, Biden remains committed to the race, striving to address and alleviate fears within his party. As the political landscape evolves, prediction markets like Polymarket will continue to reflect the shifting sentiments and probabilities of key political figures.

Source: Coindesk