The recent EU parliamentary elections have showcased a significant tilt towards right-wing parties across the continent. Despite this shift, pro-European parties at the center have managed to retain a majority. This dynamic sets the stage for a challenging path forward for current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose re-election is fraught with difficulties.
Election Results Overview
Approximately 185 million voters from 27 EU countries participated in the elections. Right-wing parties gained ground, but the surge was not as significant as anticipated. This outcome allows the pro-European coalition at the center to maintain control, albeit with a narrower majority. The so-called 'grand coalition'—comprising the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe group—secured 403 seats, about 56% of the total.
Coalition Dynamics
The EPP emerged as the clear winner, solidifying its dominance in the new parliament. Ursula von der Leyen, the EPP's lead candidate, has expressed her willingness to collaborate with various parties, including those in the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). However, early indications suggest the EPP will likely stick with its traditional center allies. European President Roberta Metsola noted that the pro-European center has held, despite the gains by extreme left and right factions.
Challenges for von der Leyen
Von der Leyen's path to re-election as Commission President is complicated by several factors:
Political Arithmetic: She will need an absolute majority of 361 MEPs in a secret ballot to secure her position. The new parliament's composition makes this a challenging feat, given the narrower margins and potential for rebellion within party lines.
French and German Politics: President Emmanuel Macron's call for snap legislative elections in France and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's weakened position in Germany add to the complexity. Both leaders' support could be pivotal for von der Leyen's re-election.
Potential Right-Wing Support: To secure her position, von der Leyen may need to rely on support from right-wing factions, such as Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy (FdI) party. However, this strategy risks alienating left-leaning allies and could hinder broader coalition-building efforts.
Future Legislative Landscape
The European Parliament operates on an issue-by-issue coalition basis rather than stable alliances. This setup means von der Leyen and the EPP will need to navigate narrow voting margins, especially on sensitive issues like the European Green Deal. The limited room for maneuver could lead to ad-hoc collaborations with right-wing partners, influencing key legislative decisions.
Potential Group Reshuffling
The composition of the European Parliament may shift as politically homeless parties negotiate group affiliations. This reshuffling could bolster the far-right factions, altering the balance of power further. Notable parties currently without a clear political family include Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the German AfD, both of which could join far-right groupings.
The EU election results reflect a significant but not overwhelming rightward shift. The pro-European center holds a majority, but Ursula von der Leyen's re-election as Commission President faces numerous hurdles. As the new parliament takes shape, the coming months will be crucial in determining the future direction of the EU, with potential implications for legislative priorities and political alliances.
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Source: Euronews
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