Global Warming Surpasses Expectations in 2024 with Temperatures Averaging +1.6°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels

The year 2024 marked an alarming milestone for global warming, as the planet's average temperature rose to +1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This exceeded the expected threshold of +1.5°C, making it the second consecutive year temperatures stayed above this critical limit. Scientists had anticipated a temporary cooling trend, yet global temperatures defied expectations, highlighting the escalating climate crisis.

A person holds a globe against the backdrop of a sunlit field, symbolizing the urgency for global climate action as 2024 breaks temperature records.

Record-Breaking Heat Despite El Niño’s Exhaustion

Copernicus data revealed that 2024 was +0.1°C warmer than 2023, itself a record-breaking year. Experts had projected that the natural El Niño phenomenon would taper off, leading to a temporary dip in global temperatures by 2026-2027. However, this cooling failed to materialize, underscoring the growing influence of anthropogenic climate change.

Europe experienced the most significant warming, with average temperatures deviating by +1.47°C compared to the 1990-2020 baseline. Additionally, 44% of the planet faced severe or extreme thermal stress on July 10, while the hottest day ever recorded globally occurred on July 22.

Related: Governments, Not Technology, Hold the Key to Meeting the 1.5°C Global Warming Target

Dire Consequences of Exceeding +1.5°C Threshold

Dr. Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director at Copernicus, warned that surpassing the +1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement might now become a long-term reality. “These elevated global temperatures, along with record atmospheric water vapor levels in 2024, have triggered unprecedented heatwaves and extreme rainfall events, causing widespread suffering,” she stated.

The year also saw fossil fuel use reach unprecedented levels, further fueling carbon emissions. Scientists estimate that if the current trajectory continues, global temperatures could rise by +2.7°C by the end of the century—an outcome considered catastrophic for human survival and ecosystems.

Urgency for Climate Action

To cap the temperature increase at +1.5°C, carbon emissions from fossil fuels must drop by 45% by 2030. Achieving this target demands immediate and coordinated efforts to transition away from oil, gas, and coal. Without decisive action, the repercussions of unchecked warming—including devastating heatwaves, flooding, and food insecurity—will only intensify.

Source: Copernicus