The 1.5°C global warming target is at risk due to governmental policy failures, despite advancements in green technology, a new study warns.
The dream of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as set out in the Paris Agreement, is fading fast. A new study published in Nature Climate Change claims that this critical target is becoming increasingly unattainable—not due to a lack of technological solutions, but because of insufficient government action.
A Shifting Focus: From Technology to Policy
Over the past few years, the deployment of green technologies such as solar power, wind energy, and electric vehicles has surged. This technological progress has raised hopes that the world could still meet its climate goals. However, the study, led by Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland and guest researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, suggests that these advancements alone are not enough. The real bottleneck lies in the capacity of governments to implement and enforce effective climate policies.
Bertram and his team ran a series of models that factored in the realistic constraints on policymaking and regulation in various countries. Their findings are sobering: even under the most optimistic scenarios, the likelihood of keeping global warming below 1.6°C is just 50%. When accounting for the challenges of rolling out climate policies, this likelihood drops dramatically to between 5% and 45%.
The Role of Governmental Policy
The study emphasizes that the recent progress in low-carbon technology deployment in regions like North America, Europe, and China shows there is potential for significant emission reductions. However, this potential can only be realized if ambitious climate policies are put into place. "Policy, not technology, is holding us back," Bertram explains.
The issue is particularly acute in regions with lower incomes and weaker institutional capacities. These areas often lack the infrastructure and regulatory frameworks necessary to enforce policies like carbon pricing, which is crucial for rapid decarbonization. Without international support to strengthen these capacities and make clean technologies more accessible, the global effort to combat climate change could fall short.
What Needs to Be Done?
For higher-income countries, the study highlights the need for stronger political will to achieve significant emissions reductions. In the European Union, for example, while progress has been made in reducing emissions from the power sector, more aggressive action is needed in other areas such as transport, buildings, and industry. The EU has the opportunity to lead by example, not only in technological innovation but also in building the institutional frameworks that can support faster decarbonization globally.
The study calls for international cooperation to help regions with less capacity for climate action. By providing support for policy implementation and making clean technologies cheaper and more accessible, wealthier nations can play a crucial role in preventing the worst impacts of climate change.
The Urgent Need for Action
The findings of this study serve as a stark reminder that time is running out to meet the 1.5°C target. While technological advancements are necessary, they are not sufficient. Without effective governmental policies, the world is on track to exceed this critical threshold, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
This study underscores the importance of strong, decisive action from governments worldwide. The path to a sustainable future does not just depend on technological innovation but on the political will to implement and enforce the policies that can turn these innovations into meaningful change.
Source: Euronews
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