For the first time in French history, the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has surged to the top of the legislative polls, more than doubling its support. According to projections from Ipsos Talan, the National Rally garnered 33.2% of the votes in the first round of legislative elections held on Sunday.
This result represents a significant achievement for Le Pen’s party, formerly known as the National Front, as it tops the first-round legislative election polls for the first time. The party's support has more than doubled since the 2022 elections. However, despite this impressive showing, it may still fall short of securing a majority in France's lower legislative chamber. Ipsos projects that Le Pen and her allies from the Republicans party could secure between 230 and 280 seats, just shy of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.
President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble coalition has struggled in these elections, with projections indicating a significant loss of seats. The coalition received 21% of the vote, a decline from the same stage in the 2022 legislative elections but an improvement over the recent EU elections, where it managed just 14.6%.
The left-wing New Popular Front, an alliance that includes the Socialist Party, Greens, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed, performed relatively well, securing 28.1% of the vote. This is a slight improvement over the 25.7% achieved by the equivalent coalition, NUPES, in 2022. Projections suggest that Macron's coalition could end up with 70-100 seats, while the New Popular Front might secure 125-165 seats, dominated by Mélenchon's party.
Eric Zemmour's far-right Reconquest party fared poorly, sinking to below 1%, with many of his supporters seemingly switching their allegiance to Le Pen. The centre-right Republicans party maintained its position at just over 10%, according to Ipsos.
The French legislative elections are crucial as a party with an absolute majority can appoint the Prime Minister and form the government. Although Macron has stated he will not resign as President, these results could lead to a period of cohabitation, where leaders of different parties share power. The last such period was from 1997 to 2002, with conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
The final outcome of the elections will be determined after the second round on July 7, where the most successful candidates from each constituency will compete. The high turnout in the first round suggests a competitive second round. In the interim, there will be substantial negotiations, with candidates potentially forming electoral pacts or withdrawing to prevent vote splitting.
In the 2022 elections, Macron's party secured just over 25% of the first-round votes but ended up with 42% of the seats, despite losing its majority. Mélenchon has promised to withdraw from any constituency where he places third, aiming to consolidate the left-wing vote and prevent additional seats from going to Le Pen.
These elections, called by Macron following a poor performance in the European Parliament elections, have reshaped the French political landscape. The National Rally's dominance and the potential for a divided government highlight the evolving dynamics in French politics.
The outcome of these elections is poised to have a significant impact on France's domestic and international policies. A strong showing by the National Rally could signal a shift towards more nationalist and conservative policies, while the fragmentation of the political landscape might lead to a period of instability and negotiation. Observers will be closely watching the second round of elections and the subsequent formation of the government.
Source: Euronews