June 2024 has set a new record as the warmest June ever, marking the 13th consecutive month of unprecedented global temperatures, according to the European climate service Copernicus. This month also signifies the third consecutive month that the Earth has exceeded the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
A Stark Warning from Climate Experts
“It’s a stark warning that we are getting closer to this very important limit set by the Paris Agreement,” remarked Nicolas Julien, a senior climate scientist at Copernicus. “The global temperature continues to increase at a rapid pace.”
The 1.5C temperature threshold is crucial as it represents the upper limit of warming that almost all countries committed to in the Paris climate accord. However, Julien and other meteorologists caution that this threshold won't be officially breached until the elevated temperatures persist for a longer duration, potentially 20 to 30 years.
“This is more than a statistical oddity; it highlights a continuing shift in our climate,” emphasized Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo in a statement.
June 2024: A Record-Breaking Month
In June 2024, the global average temperature reached 16.66 degrees Celsius, which is 0.67C above the 30-year average for the month. This surpassed the previous record for the hottest June, set a year earlier, by 0.14C. It also ranks as the third-hottest month in Copernicus' records, which date back to 1940, only behind last July and August.
The consistent record-breaking temperatures over the past 13 months are not just incremental; they are “shattered by very substantial margins,” according to Julien.
The Impact of High Temperatures on Global Weather
The relentless rise in temperatures has led to extreme weather events worldwide. June’s heat was particularly severe in regions such as Southeast Europe, Türkiye, eastern Canada, the western United States and Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa, and western Antarctica. In Pakistan, doctors treated thousands of heatstroke victims as temperatures soared to 47C.
For 15 consecutive months, the world's oceans, covering over two-thirds of Earth’s surface, have also experienced record-breaking heat, exacerbating the impacts of climate change.
Contributing Factors: Greenhouse Gases and El Niño
Most of this heat stems from long-term warming due to greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. An overwhelming majority of the heat energy trapped by human-caused climate change is absorbed by the oceans, which take longer to warm and cool.
Additionally, the natural El Niño cycle, characterized by the warming of the central Pacific, has contributed to spiking global temperatures. The strong El Niño that began last year concluded in June, adding to the temperature surge. Cleaner air over Atlantic shipping lanes, due to regulations reducing sulfur emissions, has also played a role in temporarily increasing the warming rate.
Future Projections and Urgency
Climate scientists are divided on when the current streak of record-breaking heat will end. While some indicators suggest July 2024 may be cooler than July 2023, the overall trend of rising global temperatures is likely to continue.
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist, predicts a 95% chance that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record. However, Copernicus has not yet calculated these odds. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 50% chance.
Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria, warns that the Earth is on track for 3C of warming if emissions are not urgently curtailed. He fears that the end of the record-breaking heat streak and the onset of winter may lead to complacency.
Copernicus utilizes billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations globally, reanalyzing this data with computer simulations. Other scientific agencies, including NOAA and NASA, also perform monthly climate calculations but use different methodologies and timeframes.
As the planet continues to break temperature records, the urgency for global climate action becomes increasingly apparent. The latest data serve as a stark reminder of the ongoing climate crisis and the need for immediate and sustained efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Summary: June 2024 marks the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures and the third month exceeding the 1.5C limit set by the Paris Agreement. Scientists emphasize the urgent need for action as the world experiences unprecedented heat and its devastating impacts.
Source: Euronews
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