As Tesla gears up to report its Q3 delivery numbers next week, all eyes are on its upcoming Robotaxi event, a key development that could shape both the company's stock and its future in autonomous vehicles. Analysts are expecting record third-quarter sales, largely driven by strong demand in China, but it's the Robotaxi update that’s likely to steal the spotlight.
Strong Sales Momentum in China
Tesla's vehicle sales in China continue to grow, contributing significantly to the company's expected delivery numbers for Q3. Estimates from FactSet suggest Tesla will deliver 461,000 vehicles, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase. However, Barclays is more optimistic, projecting 470,000 deliveries (an 8% YoY increase), driven by Tesla’s strong performance in China.
In August 2024, Tesla sold 86,697 vehicles in China, with 23,241 of these units exported. The domestic market accounted for 63,456 vehicles, showing a 37.27% month-on-month growth. Despite this uptick, Tesla’s year-to-date deliveries in China (January–August) remain slightly lower compared to last year, down 0.57%.
Tesla's Position in the EV Market
While Tesla holds third place in the Chinese EV market with a 6.2% share, its primary competitors—BYD (37% market share) and Geely—continue to lead. Tesla has plans to leverage AI-driven innovations like Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robots, both of which will be produced at its Austin factory, to maintain its competitive edge.
Robotaxi: The Future of Autonomous Vehicles
The highly anticipated Robotaxi event, originally scheduled for August, is now set for 10 October 2024. This initiative marks Tesla’s foray into fully autonomous driving and is a critical part of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) strategy. CEO Elon Musk has long touted Robotaxi as a game-changer, claiming it will revolutionize urban transportation by eliminating the need for human drivers.
While Tesla is optimistic about rolling out FSD globally, regulatory hurdles remain a significant barrier. The company aims to launch FSD in China and Europe by early 2025, depending on local approvals. Musk has hinted that regulatory clearance in certain regions may come by the end of 2024, allowing Tesla to expand its autonomous offerings beyond the U.S.
Tesla’s Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment
Tesla's stock has experienced an 84% rebound since April, following the company’s announcement to boost production of more affordable EVs. Despite this growth, it remains the weakest performer among the Magnificent Seven stocks—a group of elite tech companies. Tesla shares are up only 3.44% year-to-date, as the company continues to grapple with slower growth in key markets like Europe.
Still, analysts remain divided on Tesla’s future. Bank of America recently reiterated its “BUY” rating for Tesla, setting a target price of $255 (€228). Meanwhile, UBS maintains a “SELL” rating, with a more conservative price target of $197 (€176). The divergence in ratings highlights the uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s ability to maintain its current growth trajectory, particularly as competition in the EV market intensifies.
Record Deliveries on the Horizon
Tesla is expected to report strong sales in September, with 31,800 vehicle registrations recorded in China during the first two weeks alone. Analysts believe Tesla could surpass 63,000 sales for the month, bolstering its Q3 performance. However, in contrast, Tesla's performance in Europe remains sluggish, with only 148,000 deliveries in the first seven months of 2024—equivalent to just two months’ worth of sales in China.
Tesla's Robotaxi and the Future of EVs
Tesla’s Robotaxi event is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the company, potentially influencing its stock performance and strategic direction. With record sales in China expected for Q3 and new autonomous vehicle technologies on the horizon, Tesla is positioning itself to lead the autonomous driving revolution. However, challenges in Europe and ongoing regulatory issues mean that the road ahead will be anything but smooth.
As Tesla prepares to reveal its delivery numbers and roll out its Robotaxi concept, investors and analysts alike will be keen to see how the company navigates the growing competition in the global EV market.
Source: Euronews
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