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Writer's picturemeowdini

Trump's 2024 Odds Skyrocket on Polymarket Amid Manipulation Concerns

Trump holds a 20-point lead over Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election odds on Polymarket. Are these results accurate or manipulated? Find out more.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is heating up on prediction markets, with former President Donald Trump now holding a commanding 20-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket. This surge has ignited debates about potential manipulation, but Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour disputes those claims, providing data to support the accuracy of Trump’s rising odds. With Trump’s chances pegged at over 60% on Polymarket, are we seeing genuine market sentiment or orchestrated influence?


Five U.S. election ballot boxes
Trump’s rise in prediction markets stirs debate on manipulation vs. genuine sentiment.

Key Points:


  1. Trump Leads in Polymarket Odds:

    The most recent odds on Polymarket give Trump a 60.3% chance of winning the 2024 election, sparking concerns about market manipulation, especially due to his 20-point lead over Kamala Harris.

  2. Kalshi Data Supports Trump’s Lead:

    Kalshi prediction market founder Tarek Mansour counters claims of manipulation, stating that Trump’s lead is not the result of large whales. According to Mansour, more individuals are betting on Trump, and Kalshi’s data shows a similar trend.

  3. Comparison of Bet Sizes:

    Contrary to media speculation, the median bet size on Harris is larger than Trump’s, with Harris averaging $85 per bet compared to Trump’s $58, suggesting a more even playing field.

  4. American-Only Market:

    Mansour emphasized that Kalshi operates as an "American-only" platform, countering claims that foreign actors are skewing the odds in favor of Trump on Polymarket.

  5. Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Polls:

    High-profile figures like Elon Musk argue that prediction markets, where money is on the line, are more accurate than traditional polling. However, critics warn of the challenges posed by restricted access to these platforms in the U.S., potentially skewing results.



As Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 Presidential election rise sharply in prediction markets, questions loom over the accuracy of these platforms compared to traditional polling. While some see these markets as a more truthful reflection of voter sentiment, others warn of potential biases, particularly on platforms accessible to non-U.S. participants. With the election still a year away, it remains to be seen whether these prediction markets will hold their predictive power.


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